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Scirj Volume III, Issue XI, November 2015 Edition
ISSN: 2201-2796

The Causal Relationship between Anopheles Mosquito Population and Climatic Factors in Makurdi- Nigeria: An Empirical Analysis

Kuhe, David Adugh and Jenkwe, Elizabeth D

Abstract: This paper investigates the causal relationship between Anopheles Gambiae and Anopheles Funestus species of mosquito population and weather parameters such as mean temperature, mean rainfall and mean relative humidity in Makurdi, the metropolitan city of Benue State in Nigeria. The study uses monthly data obtain for the period February, 2014 to July, 2015 on the study variables. Simple correlation and linear regression analyses are employed to determine the degree and direction as well as the effect and short run relationship among the study variables. Johansen co-integration test is employed to investigate the long-run dynamics while Granger causality analysis is then applied to examine the causal relationship between Anopheles mosquitoes’ population and weather parameters. The correlation result shows that Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus have strong negative and significant relationship with mean temperature. Whereas a positive and significant correlation exists between Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus with mean rainfall and mean relative humidity. The regression result reveals that mean monthly temperature is negatively and statistically significantly related with Anopheles mosquito population in the study area. While mean rainfall and mean relative humidity are positively and statistically significantly related with Anopheles mosquito population. Johansen cointegration test results show the existence of long-run relationship among the variables under study. The Granger causality analysis result indicates that Anopheles mosquito species population is Granger caused by mean rainfall, mean temperature and mean relative humidity and that mean rainfall Granger causes mean temperature and mean relative humidity which favoured the increasing number of Anopheles mosquito population in the study area. The study recommends strong preventive and control measures against malaria in the study area.

Reference this Paper: The Causal Relationship between Anopheles Mosquito Population and Climatic Factors in Makurdi- Nigeria: An Empirical Analysis by Kuhe, David Adugh and Jenkwe, Elizabeth D published at: "Scientific Research Journal (Scirj), Volume III, Issue XI, November 2015 Edition, Page 40-49 ".

Search Terms: Anopheles mosquitoes, mean temperature, mean rainfall, mean relative humidity, cointegration, Granger causality

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